I normally DO NOT advertise on my blog — but this is Finding something new , so fits the democratization of Education bill 

This Jan/Feb @ Stanford (ah yes, its free) – wherever on EARTH YOU are ,  Be HERE !

http://www.hci-class.org/#

–

ekta

Living what you truly love doing – finding something new today .

Ola !

—

ekta

Generations of unused Mathematics rotting away in the brains – simply disobey all laws of Economics, Applied mathematics, and Probability –underestimating risk, hoarding money, slowing down the Engines of Growth , in Panic or in Greed .

In IT organizations most people do not understand the financial instruments, take mutual funds for  that matter –people recklessly invest in them at the end of Financial year, to save taxes – thereby driving the prices up – and at the same don’t understand the logic of buying low, and selling high. Instead driven by greed, they invest when the market is bullish – and when panic strikes in – go raging to sell it all. Fact of Matter is, Markets REALLY need a recession – because recessions cull the non-competitive firms , permit for Market corrections and un-grounded Price hikes, and act as a catalyst for spurring new products and services; thereby making the economy stronger .

The point is : Markets thrive on incomplete information , and will never take steps to educate the consumers – simply because informed customers translates to lost Revenue, and markets thrive on Incomplete information .

If you are doing the obvious, there’s got to be something wrong with it .

So when you next pick up a stock , a mutual fund, or any financial Instrument – Stop by , and question yourself –“ Do I know enough?” – and if not – pick up the right source – and “GO” to the “School” – because learning never really stops .

And Math is NOT just for Dummies .

–

Ekta Grover

You have this lovely beautiful, almost flawless model and you look at it – and you are like – but its so obvious , how could anyone write that ? And as you ask this , you are (almost) marvelling at the sheer beauty of it .

As an Econ Grad ,look around – simple as it may sound – you will find loopholes which you CAN fix – so DO it with “the” MODELS

Seeing it before anyone else does – that’s the goal . And then finding the data that will fit it

And (please) keep it simple, stupid

–

ekta

*Wrote my first “model”  this morning , actually it woke me up – almost , and like my “Copenhagen pool a pool” – the idea which I developed while at SAP labs,India –the idea of which I got after seeing a play about an event that occurred in Copenhagen in 1941 about  a meeting between the physicists Niels Bohr and Werner Heisenberg.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Somewhere in my early teens, I remember particularly the time we had vacations culminating after exams in Early march , and then was the time to plan for vacations .My expenditures in this time used to be books – not the serious ones though – but I particularly remember that I used to make about three trips a day – because all I did was to read and the shop keeper guy who lend us these books gave quite some discount (provided I returned the books the same day) to lure an “ordinary middle class” kid to make these trips back and forth. While both us sisters were looking forward to the new set of books(Junk – food implied while returning from each of these trips)  and clothes, and a well deserved “Dolce Far niente” — mom always said “ahh its march..”

For us Indians March meant – you have to finally settle off with paying the taxes. Although we neither quite knew nor understood what that meant – we “internalized” these taxes . i.e we still asked her for money for this time that we wanted to spend on – but instead of asking these now in march – when she was credit constrained – we asked her to increase out pocket money systematically since October so that  we could both save enough for the spending in march. Years later I now learn that this is actually the “ricardian equivalence” – and that’s the beauty of it .

Or be it the Knowledge of the markets episode I had multiple times as a child while assisting my father to the “local mandi “ (market) – and …

I now know that in a competitive equilibrium markets clear and that prices come out as a solution to the problem . Eureka ! Each of these times as I am sitting in the class and thinking from words to Mathematics and Mathematics to words – I run several journeys back and forth all these markets , to our own middle class budget constraints – and about what really intuition is .

Economics is beautiful because it is science and not just social science ; because it teaches you to simplify and explain things logically and understand abstractly.It is like knowing it already , but being able to claim that its actually true ; like almost  ”seeing it coming” — and that’s the hunch .

From mathematics to abstract and back to the application ..

And ,I learn for the joy of it .

–

ekta

*** Ohh and by the way – if you dont know me – you don’t know that I choose to study Economics after practically burning all my ships after a graduation in Computer science . Oh well – ok no .. “I don’t know how it was where you were ..” but where I was everywhere I went I get this puzzled look – “….but Why economics ?”  - what do you know about it – and  I would go on to say , “well frankly , all I know is very limited – but I better know it !”

Until only a few years back, I told it to shut up and never manifest itself.

How can the output of a black box change if you keep popping the same input? “That BIG stint” does not happen. NEVER has, NEVER will.

This is the right day for anything, for connecting, for offering to help, engaging,learning, harboring curiosity, being and becoming.

The fear of disengagement is manifesting more than it ever did.

Indifference kills. So Engage instead. Anything. Substantial. Tangible. Persistent. Non-Superficial. It doesn’t have to be large or remarkable upfront; it just has to be aligned to who you want to BE. We are not short of  information, or resources, just the will to braid the resources around to get to that personal “Eureka!”

So, when you next ask yourself, ”What should I do with my life?” just tune in to whatever is around you. When you start to consciously hunt and align your interests towards what you really want to do, you find it everywhere. When you are brushing,walking, talking, and even when you are taking a nap.

And yes, don’t trash your ideas, recycle them!

This new year, do something substantial. If you ever have to go down, Go Down FIGHTING !

The distance between two points is always a straight line. Go draw.

This post was orignally published as my entry — an essay in the Triiibes ebook for the Triiibes New York Conference ’2010 .One of the most amazing things I did .. Here’s the ebook .

FearAndLoathingIn2010Book

–

ekta

Change lanes here 
     – One life , Do more

I don’t know how it was where you were, but in India when you go on a spiritual journey – you leave everything behind- cell phones, jobs, credit cards and go to the Himalayas. 

  In the last two years – I have had a similar journey of revelation, more of a spiritual experience -just that my journey happened across all the geographical boundaries. 
So this day, I consider myself to be lucky to be able to convey my note of thanks to the man who taught me the right things – all in the reverse order than what they have always taught us all our lives!

  Seth taught me the power of language, of actions, initiative, humility, of building genuine relationships – and giving before you expect to receive.
The finest lesson I picked up from him was on Quitting - quitting to do the right things at the right time, and on getting past that dip - effortlessly and gracefully. 
 

Most of my childhood went into convincing that I was born with Creative genius, and that “it just comes to me”, but as I grew up – I just lost it – and kept pushing it – just to get that “right frame” of mind. So much so had been the fear of rejection that it stopped me from practicing the trade I believed I was good at. Seth taught me that it is ok to stumble again - He taught me not to put trade ideas for a coffee-kick. He taught me the power of unfinished works is more than that of those fermenting in your head all your life.
He taught me to live my life, do it yourself before you even “attempt” to preach. He taught me that there is no excuse for an excuse and that I might as well admit it humbly. He taught me that limitations are first created in head, then in the heart.

 Most importantly, Seth taught me to give selflesslesly and what goes round comes around – Seth being a standing testimony to the love of the many tribes he leads – speaking so effortlessly as if transforming the lives he “talks to” by a Midas touch – carving wholesome individuals of people ;teaching us to be a better human being before a better academician, or professional. 

 In essence Seth has spawned generations of creative change agents - each of whom try to make a difference, bringing the power of initiatives and impact their own circles of perceptions - I call this a nuclear fission reaction! 

 These two years of mentoring through much of his work and learning from fellow triiibsters , I have become a carrier of change, of creativity, a go-getter – that’s how I best describe myself – and am happy that the change traveled to me – or that I opened myself to it .I now lead two small tribes, one – of Changing the way we see charity and, two – the health freaks – in the office where I teach dance aerobics to girls . Both of these helped reinforcing the power of discipline and commitment – so much so that the vibes I now feel when I am working with these tribes - makes me feel I am carrying that seed of changed further on- and that it will nurture and flourish. And precisely “this” makes it my own spiritual journey . 

As, I change lanes this September when I begin my masters in Economics and hopefully continue my research in Social Entrepreneurship – and helping people see Businesses as a human capital generation engines ,and not as mere money generation instruments. 

 I wrote to Seth after my Alternative MBA application (rejection) ,that I m going to learn from him, anyway – I wrote to him that there is a mythological tale in India – in which when the “Guru”, or the teacher refuses to teach the pupil , the pupil gets a idol of the Guru and does his practice in front of this idol, as a virtual Guru .I let Seth touch my life through much of his work — and today for the Guru Dakshina bit – (the gift to the Guru)
Seth – this one’s for you – “I ” .

The orignal post was written as a birthday prsent to the Man who made me who I am today – Seth Godin . The orignal post here .

–

ekta

What ?

The happiness project is my effort – henceforth our effort to give back to the space we come from .

It attempts to raise funds for Gerizim , a faculty that houses special needs children .

http://www.gerizimhome.org/

How ?

We attempt to design a set of Momo Cards – and then sell them for a nominal rates at our organizations, to friends, family and fools, or create them or gift them to long lost friends ..

All collections go to Gerizim .

Who ?

You and I .

When and where ?

Saturday ,May 1^st ,2010 which also happens to be labor day

at  —

Jeevan Bheema Nagar , Bangalore – 560076

Exact coordinates available once you shoot me a confirmatory mail expressing your interest.

(Please let me know, if you want to volunteer a space we could use )

How it all started —-

The happiness project started as an effort of helping people help themselves last December, precisely last Christmas , when a friend of mine, Anupama and I had been to Gerizim , at Ejipura, Bangalore .

All we took was some cake, candies and Color books- but the kids continued to surprise us with what they had. That gets us to –

You are limited only by what you feel you do not have .And it is the inner strength that counts .

That one day – we came back with a feeling –

We are going to come here more often –

Read more about that journey and Anecdotes here

So we go there again – this time with the funds we collected from office.

Next we collected some old clothes, toys (You shouldn’t be surprised to know that these kids are taught primarily using Games)

So here’s a chance for the big deal —

We now attempt to see how much more can we give ..

To keep it short – pictures speak –

Have a sneak here .

What else can you do ?

Spread a word, Tweet, even if you aren’t creative enough- you could help us selling them , or buying them

And yes, the snacks and the Hi tea is on me – please let me know- so that I could plan accordingly .

Creating  something beyond yourselves . Look forward to seeing you ..

~

Helping people help themselves ..

ek

It doesn’t matter how big is your effort – genuine is what it just needs to be …

And here are the memoirs of the day ..

Pictures here .

The Key highlights of the proposal  –

- abolish all taxes in the country except import and customs duties.

- remove all currency notes above Rs.50 denomination from the system by asking all holders of this currency to deposit it in the bank.

- make it mandatory for all transactions above Rs.2000 to be done through the banking channel, i.e. through cheques, or credit/debit cards.

-  Introduce a flat transaction tax of, say, 2% on every transaction in the banking system in the recipient’s hand.

Here’s my take on the ideas- with a critique on the proposed mechanism design.

The impact of the transaction costs on the money collected, will add up to taxes and revenues for the Government. However it carries a huge risk – dealt in the Chaos theory later in the post.

The point is – If the input functions to this black box- the new mechanism proposed is hazy, it will have severe gaps in terms of what it intends to achieve and how the revenues will be distributed .

The Story of India’s growth is not only the amount of the currency in print- it is the growth of the Virtual money generating instruments. It is the easy accessibility of loans – both high and low interest rates .This proposal also hits the backbone of any economy- the liquidity that is so very essential to the growth.
It is clear that such proposals will not only encourage hoarding of money -to save this “additional transaction charge” levied on them, but also there is a bigger challenge to address .

Firstly, it is not clear how the money will be “BANKED” – i.e collected in the first place. This is equivalent of collecting the statistics about the population and distribution demographics of  a country- which are very difficult to procure.

Moreover this data collected at the micro level which affects the Macro Economics obeys the chaos theory - which states that a small change in a variable can make a huge difference in the data that is collected.

Popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.

This now brings us back to the question – how do we capture the black money that is both being hoarded and also being used to fund the other operations which are not captured in the legal structure?

One might argue that it will facilitate that the operations used to fund acts of terrorism , criminal operations , political campaigns and like will become more visible , but the question remains – the collating of the data- i.e how much do we have ?

Moreover money is not just hard currency or virtual currency – it is also the basic component that adds in the GDP of any country – the Goods and the services that facilitate this creation .

The proposal attempts to arrest Inflation – but what would happen as a side affect is -

a. It will also arrest the development – thus giving incentive to hoard money

b.It will encourage the investors – as the perceived value of “stalling currency” will encourage to park money in other comparatively safer havens – which promise greater magnitudes of growth.

We have already seen the investors parking money in Banks of other nationalities – like Switzerland and Singapore- coz of the appreciating value of money.

i.e the utility function is what any investor would look at , and attempt to maximize.

Utility function  for any investor -

Original sum = x Units

Appreciated value of x units after n years =

k units in the proposed Mechanism *

j units in the other alternatives

* Includes the transaction cost and the other overheads which includes money that goes in procuring the liquidity + effort and time lost

Now any investor will attempt to compare the maximum payoff between k and j . Simply put, it is not possible for ANY banking system to permit k >> j for the following reasons -

The banking system needs to scale in proportion to the NEW demand of the backbone that is intended now.

This also includes the other Backup infrastructures that are basic to the primary creation –

Internet access to every individual – lack of which creates both a  bottleneck in terms of the liquidity that it intends to provide.

Take an example of a city , or a suburb struggling with huge deficits of  electricity , and poor- or not-up to date internet                                           infrastructure – how do we then scale up these transactions ?

The lack of this basic infrastructure ensures that a lot of money and effort goes in procuring the money – which is both ironic .For one, time is money – this will only increase the trips to the bank – which will have more repercussions for the anathema.

—Collapse or unavailability of any of this channel will create huge pressure and impacts in terms of the .It is not clear how the banking systems will operate.

—Moreover, who monitors that the transactions above Rs 2000 are tracked and done through the banks – If I need to exchange money – I may still do it -as I still have the funds – I can withdraw them – correct?

It looks like we may as well move to barter – than progressing from and upward from what we have already built.

—This does not cater the emergency, life and death situations – immediate needs for travel and cash requirements.

—Stocking huge amounts of money in the banks will not help till the system scales up to distribute the funds that would go to fund the interest that it needs to distribute. This would require “Finding “what to fund- and an easy availability of loans .This gives extra incentives and red signals of what happened with the housing bubble – plethora of loans – in this case – to distribute the stocked otherwise money that would otherwise not appreciate.

Overall it needs much work, and must accommodate all the repercussions  .

To sum it up , the manufacturing, like all the other Asset backed sectors requires huge access of liquid cash . “Moving” money through the bank transactions looks good on its face, but it is flawed- because

For this to happen the banking sector needs a revival and a complete makeover , it needs to scale to meet the challenges of a complete globalization in its true sense .That will not happen unless we have invested enough in the infrastructure .

~

ek

Mathematics is the language of Nature .  Patterns emerge, when you look hard enough .

Here, I (attempt) to describe the anatomy of the increasing suicide cases year after year

Problem -

Farmer suicides due to inability to pay loans , low returns on the produce , famine -adversary conditions, poverty, cheating on the interest rates by landlords and deceptive and spurious/vicious circle of loans which are required for the initial investment into crop produce , to find and fund alternative sources of irrigation .

Insurance instruments existing in the market -

Currently a few players are in the market who “cover the risk” of vagaries of bad weather, rains and famine, lesser/low return(S) produce due to large scale damages due to pests and crop disease .

Agricultural insurance company of India (Estb1956)

Insurance for Agriculture ,LLC (Estb 1986)

What we , however need – is a safeguard against the price controls affected by the government as a policy measure of vote bank politics , the adequate and cheap availability of Agricultural produce backed loans and insurance installments , the removal of middle men, better Inventory management , storage and retrieval systems. Crops being a perishable commodity, we need quick access to take this produce to the market.

That calls for a massive change in the infrastructure. But a fundamental question remains- If we perceive it according to the thumb rule of Game theory- would enough incentives remain with the government to support the farmers?

For the change to happen the governments must perceive it as a “threat” that it must act, or its utility function will reduce overall.

In a democracy, and yet not so answerable government, it gets even tougher .This is not to say that there is not adequate transparency, just a “lack of will” to implement these decisions.

As Adam Smith quoted in his much known – “An inquiry into the wealth of nations “

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. “

Given we all are driven by different order, dimensions and magnitude of self Interest – what is the interest for the government to vest effort to do something about it ?

This question is more important than it looks- simply because it has both the problem statement and the answer in itself ,at the same time . And that is precisely what is interesting.

Let’s see what drives most of the farmer suicides -

The Government often lowers the price of the basic commodities like rice, wheat, potato, onions, and tomatoes to create popularity – vote bank Politics .This however hits the farmer as he still has to take the produce to the local market where it is sold at a subsidized rate, and consequently it hits his returns .

Let us now see what this means for the farmer to maximize his utility function –

The options available to the farmer now are –

1. To produce the commodities/produce which are not subsidized and give him maximum Return on Investment and labor to ensure that he can pay off a part of the loans and sustain himself (and his family)
2. Driven by the adverse loans and consequently being hag-ridden by the land lords (Most of the farmers in India grow produce on leased lands ,and borrow part of most initial investments from local landlords and other private(local) money lends , this being in major due to lack of adequate loans available )
3. To create an artificial lack of supply by destroying the produce, throwing it off hoarding it, hence giving the supply and demand a gentle tremor. This is very damaging to the GDP of the country as the goods and the services produced are lost after sufficient man hours are invested in it .

Let us now evaluate the options for the government –

1. Being indifferent – it can gain unpopularity if sufficient people are aware of the suicides driven by facts aforementioned. Also the opposition party can challenge this question in the parliament, mostly for its vested interests though.

b.    Taking action – and not subsidizing produce –

—Can cause a lost of substantial votes due to inflation and its subsequent un popularity from the middle class families who do not have their primary occupation as agriculture ,and the section using the loan instruments to  make money betting on the produce of the farmers .

—Can cause a lost of substantial votes due to inflation and its subsequent un popularity from the middle class families who do not have their primary occupation as agriculture ,and the section using the loan instruments to  make money betting on the produce of the farmers .

—Might result into increased popularity (and votes) – from the learned section and the section having agriculture as the primary occupation

Has the potential for increased returns from the exports – if the additional produce is not “killed” to create an artificial supply tremor .

Thus, as is seen, the risks or the rewards materialize only near its end terms – so being indifferent is the major chosen “Action” – rather inaction.

Here’s what we need to change –

Getting both private players and public players into the agriculture insurance sector

Creating more answerability (Will be taken in more detail- in a day or two)

Easy and quick accessibility of loans

Encouraging more social entrepreneurs to solve the challenges in the rural sector

Adding more value to the lifestyle of the rural populace – this could mean lower suicide rates

Building more efficient “systems” – and inventory and supply management systems to do away with the loss due its perishable nature .

Initiatives which connect the farmer to the market – like e-choupal (ITC) , and other such ventures .

Organizations like ITC echoupal are already making the impact through its initiates – here is the time for a bigger impact .

In sum ,

The more stronger the self interest is – the stronger will be the Impact -and the potential CHANGE that can happen to this largely ignored sector .

The nature of commodity prices affecting the commodities is a little uncertain .However it has a huge potential for the betterment of an average farmer.

Anyone willing to answer this ?

~
ek

Do the new ..